It’s that time of the year again. The season that begins in December every year and stretches on through March of the next year, has the Hollywood film folk in a rapturous frenzy of awards and celebrations. The studios back their hopefuls with media splurges, the critics rush in with their bit (and awards) and just about every possible film / press association doles out its honors. Just about. Till that sleek golden boy makes sure all attention is now on him. Call it what you want, but none can resist the lure of that sexy golden male form that The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences bestows on what it considers the best cinematic talent of the year gone by. The Oscars will always be the Oscars. Love them some and hate them some more, but watch them you will. And everybody knows that.  ABC, the official television network that holds the Oscar night rights, should know best: It sold commercial spots of 30 seconds for a whopping $1.4 million each, more than three months ahead of the ceremony. This is Oscar fever, you folks, and all that jazz!

An inescapable feature that comes with any awards package is the slew of post-mortems that follow. The bigger the awards show, the more bitter and bulkier the post-mortems. The Oscars being the biggest of them all come with their share of “how someone deserved it and was snubbed,” “how someone was given a consolation award this year, for being neglected all these years,” “how the studio heads lobbied for their vehicles,” etc. Since you will anyway read all that come March 23^rd, we’ve decided to do one better. Here’s our pre-cursor of what we think the Oscar race is all about this year: Our list of the talent that “should-win” the Oscar this year in the top six categories, comes along with our list of who “will-win” the Oscar anyway and why.  Here comes…

BEST PICTURE

Should – Win:             Chicago

Why:                           Shamelessly celebrating its decadent heroes, this musical set in 1920s Chicago is as rich in entertainment as its protagonists are bankrupt, in morals. Every musical number has the audience thirsting for an encore in this rapid-paced razzle dazzle which is a veritable feast for the senses. The highlights: well, just about everything. Rob Marshall’s cinematic adaptation of Bob Fosse’s Broadway show does more than just remain faithful to its source. It adds its own chutzpah and makes use of every cinematic possibility to heighten the effect. The musical numbers, be it John Reilly’s melancholic ‘Mr. Cellophane’, Queen Latifah’s heaving ‘You be good to mama’, the rousing Cell Block Tango, Richard Gere’s inspired tap dance routine, his enjoyable ‘Razzle dazzle them’, Catherine Zeta Jones’s ‘All that Jazz’, or Rene Zellweger’s ‘Roxie’, are all superbly executed and wonderfully performed. All in all, this is entertainment at its fullest. Bursting with energy, sexuality, color, and talent at its peak, this heralder and champion of the musical genre deserves to win, despite the immense competition.

Will – Win:                Chicago

Why:                           Honored with 13 nominations, it is considered a lock this year in this category.

The Others:                LOTR: The Two Towers The second installment of Tolkein’s grandiose epic of the battle for middle earth is perhaps the most ‘complete’ of films in this category this year. Regarded by many (including this writer) as better than LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring, the only chink in its armor may be the fact that the Academy may choose to wait till the third serving (Return of the King) before honoring it. Crazy logic, but that’s the way it works, I guess.  Hats off to Peter Jackson and his team for this incredible movie experience.

                                    The Hours The film that packs the toughest emotional punch this year will clearly live on for hours, months and years, without doubt. Fascinatingly adapted from Michael Cunningham’s Pulitzer Prize winner of the same name, this is a movie gem with arguably three of the very best actresses in Hollywood today: Meryl Streep, Julianne Moore and Nicole Kidman. It is nothing short of sheer delight to watch Streep get so lost in her character that you feel the inexplicable pain in your gut when she breaks down in her kitchen while talking to Jeff Daniels. Julianne Moore delivering the “You are my guy” dialogue to her son while driving back from her self-aborted suicide attempt knocks you with the same melancholy as does the wisdom in Kidman’s observation that “Someone has to die so that the others value life more.” Billy Elliot director Stephen Daldry makes an indelible mark as the best emerging talent in town with this masterful effort that has Nicole Kidman deliver her best performance to date as the depressed Virginia Woolf, battling with her mental demons. A movie with so much sadness still manages to evoke a deep joy inside you as you savor every minute of The Hours. You come back feeling wiser and strangely more humane.

                                    The Pianist Roman Polanski’s tale of survival rises above many a Holocaust drama to follow its protagonist, composer Wladyslaw Szpilman, who played the last live music heard on the radio in Warsaw as the city was invaded by Germans in 1939. Following his day-to-day efforts at surviving, this gritty drama is as stark as they come. Adrien Brody in the title role appears in almost every frame of this 150 minute drama, and stuns us with his depth (the scene where he walks teary-eyed  through an empty street ravaged by German soldiers is crushing, to say the least).  The best feature of The Pianist therefore is its lead performer. Though certainly better than Gangs of New York, it isn’t quite in the league of the other three films in this category.

                                    Gangs of New York Touted by Scorsese himself as his most ambitious project to date, Gangs of New York (GONY) hit cinemas everywhere last year with unprecedented pre-release curiosity. It was marketed as an epic, and seemed destined to be one. Almost. With a mega budget, a brilliant technical team and the history behind it (the film was being planned for over 25 years, and everyone in Hollywood was waiting for this Scorsese magnum opus), it seemed like a natural contender for the best picture and many more awards. It seems to have lived up to the hype with the Academy at least, what with 10 nominations this year. But it is undeniably the weakest film in this category. Technical brilliance, majestic sets, a fantastic score and Daniel Day Lewis’s bravura performance notwithstanding, GONY lacks a strong core. Too much style with too little substance is its main undoing. Does it still have a chance? Hell, yes. Not everybody thinks it’s a weak film like I do. It does have its share of staunch, die-hard fans. So let’s leave it at that.

BEST ACTOR

Should – Win:             Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt)

Why?                          This guy does it again. He never stops surprising you. Just when you thought that he might get repetitive or put in another ‘As Good As It Gets’ performance (where he wasn’t half as delightful to watch as in About Schmidt), he stumps you with his Schmidt. It’s like nothing he’s done before. He displays the stuff that truly great actors are made of, by immersing himself so completely in his character that it’s Schmidt you’re watching and not good ol’ Jack. Not that he needs anyone to know what a great actor he is (he knows and so do we). In a category that has Daniel Day Lewis, Nicholas Cage, Adrian Brody and Michael Caine, each with a near perfect performance, this award still belongs to Jack. Yes, Jack, with a history of eleven Academy award nominations and three wins so far.

Will – Win:                 Daniel Day Lewis (Gangs of New York)

Why?                          Well, for starters, he was the best thing about Gangs of New York. Virtually redeeming the film with his electrifying performance, this terrific actor took five years off from acting before agreeing to do GONY. Honored by the BAFTA last week, he is currently tipped as the favorite to take home the Oscar. I think he’ll win because GONY has an astounding 10 nominations, and he is clearly GONY’s trump card. If GONY deserves to win any award, then this is the one it most deserves, and hence he’ll win (of course Scorsese will take home the best director trophy, but more on that later). That’s some logic, but hey, isn’t that how things work?

The Others:                Adrian Brody (The Pianist)

Successfully conveying the wounded-but-not-killed-spirit of Holocaust survivor Wladyslaw Szpilman, Brody’s is nothing short of a devastating portrayal that has the capacity to move you deeply.  An interesting fact is that Brody is the sole nominee in this category, not currently in possession of an Oscar.

Nicholas Cage (Adaptation)           

Cage surprises us with his dual roles as Charlie Kaufman (an insecure screenwriter) and Donald Kaufman (his care-a-damn twin brother) and provides the required substance in the lead roles to pull off a brilliant enterprise like Adaptation. He is genuinely funny here (and not The Family Man kind of funny).

                                    Michael Caine (The Quiet American)

                                    Caine, who won an Oscar in the supporting actor category in 1999 for Cider House Rules, delivers a masterfully controlled performance as the Vietnam era correspondent in The Quiet American. The result is a performance worthy of being a text-book case in the craft of acting.

BEST ACTRESS

Should – Win:             Julianne Moore (Far From Heaven)

Why?                          If there’s any sense of justice in this world, I’d like to invoke it now, before the Academy announces the winner in this category. In a category that is extremely close this year between two superlative actresses (Moore & Kidman), it is Julianne Moore’s Cathy Whittaker in Far From Heaven that has my vote. Moore deserves the recognition this year, more than any other time in her career. Delivering her best performance to date (and she does have quite a few performances to talk about), she is pitch-perfect as the 1950s housewife affected by the two big taboos of America of that era: racism and homosexuality. Here’s an actress who heartbreakingly convinces her audience completely of her lifestyle and choices as a 50s housewife. It was a balance that she pulled off so amazingly, that any other slightly lesser performer would have evoked laughs at junctures when Moore evokes complete empathy from her audience. With due respect to Kidman (who is otherwise a personal favorite), I think this award belongs to Julianne Moore who deserves it, albeit with a thin edge.

Will – Win:                 Nicole Kidman (The Hours)

Why?                          Kidman’s portrayal of the tormented author Virginia Woolf has to be seen to be completely believed. It captivates you entirely the first time you see it, and it gets even better when you view it for a second time. What a performance! We’ve seen many actresses over the years in roles of mentally ill / depressed / tormented women, but nothing we’ve seen before prepares us for Kidman’s tour-de-force take on Virginia Woolf. The prosthetic nose is much-ado-about nothing, compared to the acting treat that Kidman delivers. Sure, it does help to the extent that it makes it difficult for us to recognize the glamorous star that she is, but her portrayal of Woolf is on a much greater level that needs minimum support from make-up and costumes. If Julianne Moore’s Far From Heaven was released in any other year, Kidman’s performance in The Hours would clearly double as my “should-win” and “will-win” candidate for the best actress award. She clearly has an advantage with the Golden Globe nod, the BAFTA win, and with Miramax’s heavy boss (every pun intended) pushing her nomination.

The Others:                Salma Hayek (Frida)

                                    Salma Hayek, playing Mexican artist Frida Kahlo in Frida does a convincing job, though it’s hard not to get distracted by her sultry good looks.

                                    Diane Lane (Unfaithful)

                                    Redeeming an otherwise seen-it-before kind of film (well-made, though it may be), Diane Lane performs with aplomb as the infidel wife in Unfaithful. It is tough not to cheer her for the range of emotions she displays (a case in point is the scene in which she’s traveling back home in the train after making love with her much younger lover, and is reminiscing about it, as a myriad expressions flicker on her face, from guilt and pain to ecstasy and confusion), making her a admirable addition in this category.

                                    Rene Zellweger (Chicago)

                                    Zellweger’s Roxie Hart is the unapologetic starry-eyed murderess in the year’s musical smash Chicago. Sexy, pouty, greedy, scheming, and ultimately surviving, she is a revelation after last year’s funny and buxom Bridget Jones. Miramax did the right thing by touting Catherine Zeta Jones as a supporting actress for the same film, as the votes would have been evenly split otherwise. Though this is a daring performance, it does lack the emotional depth of the characters played by the other contenders in this category. The Golden Globe that Zellweger won for best actress in a musical / comedy could perhaps be the biggest win for this role.

BEST DIRECTOR

Should – Win:             Stephen Daldry (The Hours)

Why?                          He’s getting exponentially better with every successive film. In only his third film as director (after the little known but fantastic ‘Eight’ in 1998, and ‘Billy Elliot’ in 2000), Stephen Daldry displays a rare emotional sensitivity towards his material and seemingly effortless expertise in handling three superb (and seasoned) actresses.  To begin with, it would take nerviness (if there was such a word) and guts to even think of adapting Cunningham’s complex book, which works well as a book but at first seems like a near impossible transition as a screenplay. David Hare’s screenplay lends huge support to Daldry’s efforts as a director, but that doesn’t take away the fact that here is a tremendous directorial talent. With his finesse in handling this complex psychological drama, Daldry demonstrates that not everything needs to be verbalized and underscored to evoke emotion. He makes his point with startling subtlety.  He is simply the very best in this category, in the past year.

Will – Win:                 Martin Scorsese (Gangs of New York)

Why?                          If you haven’t guessed it already, then here’s a hint: The director of such acclaimed films like Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, Goodfellas, Mean Streets, The Age of Innocence, After Hours, Casino etc., (the list truly does go on), has been nominated thrice, but has never won the coveted statue. In what may seem like the ultimate Oscar consolation (and the Academy is notorious for this), he will most likely take the statue home for GONY, which is clearly nowhere in the league of his best films. Personally, I think that a director of his caliber and repute should be embarrassed if he wins for GONY, but he may not think so. His staunch supporters (and he has tons of them) will no doubt cheer for him, but I’d rather he win for a more worthy movie.

The Others:                Rob Marshall (Chicago)

                                    Roman Polanski (The Pianist)

                                    Pedro Almodovar (Talk to Her)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Should – Win:             Chris Cooper (Adaptation) & John Reily (Chicago)

Why?                          I so very resisted suggesting a tie in any of the earlier categories, but I will succumb to the temptation now. It would be a welcome change to see the Academy announce a tie more often (Last time there was a tie for Best Actor was in 1932, between Wallace Beery in The Champ and Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde; Last time there was a tie for Best Actress was in 1967, Katharine Hepburn in The Lion in Winter and Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl).  Chris Cooper as the toothless Orchid thief Laroche in the year’s funniest film, Adaptation, has swept virtually every conceivable pre-Oscar award. It is truly an honor well-deserved for pulling off an extremely challenging role with such seeming ease. Loosening up after playing several stiff / conservative characters in his recent films (American Beauty, The Bourne Identity), he is actually charming even without his front teeth. Now for the tie: John Reilly has played the ‘poor’ husband in Chicago (in fact, Reilly’s is the only ‘moral’ character in Chicago), The Good Girl, and The Hours, and also stars in GONY. A single actor playing brilliant cameos in so many films in a single year is something to take note of. For his body of supporting roles in this past year, he has my nod for sharing the honor with Cooper.

Will – Win:                 Chris Cooper

Why?                          This is again what many consider a lock, what with Cooper winning every major award in this category so far this year, and rightly so. Paul Newman as the elderly mob boss in Road to Perdition was as always a treat to watch, but this wasn’t his greatest role. Ed Harris plays a pivotal role as the AIDS stricken poet in The Hours, but seemed a little affected and effortful in his depiction. Christopher Walken was one of the best things about Catch Me If You Can, but there doesn’t seem to be too much of a buzz around this role so far. This leaves Cooper and Reilly, and if one were to judge only the performance in their nominated movies (as opposed to Reilly’s body of work this year), it’s Cooper all the way.

The Others:                Paul Newman (Road to Perdition)

                                    Ed Harris (The Hours)

                                    Christopher Walken (Catch me If You Can)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Should – Win:             Meryl Streep (Adaptation)

Why?                          Streep plays New York writer Susan Orlean with a fascinatingly amusing streak that displays her gifted but not-too-acknowledged sense of humor. Admittedly bored with numerous nominations over the years (a record 12 Academy nominations and two Oscar wins, the last one being for Sophie’s Choice in 1982), Streep quipped during her flustered Golden Globe acceptance speech earlier this year that since she hasn’t won an award since the Pleistocene era, she was getting comfortable in the back rows taking a winter nap at the award ceremony. Well, it’s time again for this remarkable actress to walk up the red carpet and take a bow as we salute her talent yet again. She will tie with Katharine Hepburn if she wins her third Oscar this year (she is already tied with Hepburn for most nominations). It’s about time.

Will – Win:                 Meryl Streep (Adaptation)

Why?                          Because hers is clearly the most seemingly effortless role in this category, and the fact that Catherine Zeta Jones might have her votes split with Queen Latifah for Chicago, Streep is clearly a lock. Kathy Bates’ cameo in About Schmidt is funny and effective too, but not in the league of Streep’s Orlean in Adaptation. As for the other heavyweight Julianne Moore, (for her Laura Brown in The Hours), it only speaks of her talent that she is the only performer nominated in two acting categories this year, but she really ought to win the bigger prize (better actress).

The Others:                Catherine Zeta Jones (Chicago)

                                    Queen Latifah (Chicago)

                                    Kathy Bates (About Schmidt)

                                    Julianne Moore (The Hours)

THE OTHER CATEGORIES

INDICATORS:  * Should Win ,  * Will Win

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Gangs of New York

My Big Fat Greek Wedding

Far From Heaven

Talk to Her *
Y Tu Mama Tambien *

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
About a Boy

Adaptation *

Chicago

The Pianist
The Hours * (a close second in my should-win list)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Far From Heaven

Gangs of New York
Chicago

Road to Perdition * *
The Pianist
 
BEST ART DIRECTION
Chicago*

Frida

Gangs of New York *
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
Road to Perdition

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Chicago

Frida *
Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers *

The Pianist

BEST FILM EDITING
Chicago * *

Gangs of New York
Lord of the Rings: the Two Towers
The Hours

The Pianist

BEST MAKEUP
Frida  * *

The Time Machine

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Far From Heaven *

Frida *

Road to Perdition

The Hours
Catch Me If You Can

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Chicago (I Move On)

Gangs of New York (The Hands that Built America) * *

8 Mile (Lose Yourself)

The Wild Thornberry’s Movie (Father and Daughter)

Frida (Burn it Blue)

BEST SOUND

Chicago

Gangs of New York

Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers * *

Road to Perdition

Spiderman

BEST SOUND EDITING

Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Minority Report * *

Road to Perdition

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Lord of the Rings *
Star Wars Episode II *

Spiderman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Ice Age

Lilo and Stich

Sprited Away * *

Spirit

Treasure Planet

BEST FOREIGN FILM, BEST DOCUMENTARY, BEST SHORT FILM